yeah we heard that story before and we all know how good it went for ukraine…
So taiwan should definitely keep arming up and be ready for a fucking invasion.
I’m weirded out time and time again why people and newspapers listen to the likes of Xi and Putin. You know? Dictators who lied over and over and over and over and over and over again?
Their job is to report what is said exactly, not give their commentary on it (otherwise, you get fox news). Now, good journalists also provide the current news in context of past actions, but they should still let the reader decide if it will happen again.
Friendly reminder that CPC-KMT relations were downright friendly. The tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait today are a direct product of the DPP’s policy.
The DPP has received sizable backing and support from the US state-funded National Endowment for Democracy. Oops.
lol
The CPC and KMT were moving towards peace. That’s undeniable.
Then, the DPP comes in from what’s certainly not a coup and takes power. This is the same DPP that has changed Taiwan’s focus from economic development (under the KMT) towards “national security issues and China’s threat to Taiwan in local elections.”
These are issues that were directly provoked by DPP hostility in relations. The DPP has categorically set back peace in the region by at least a decade.
The CPC and KMT were moving towards peace. That’s undeniable.
Towards peace like Russia walks towards peace in Ukraine? Come one buddy let it go, I can’t take you serious…
Do you understand history at all? Jesus Christ it’s like Westerners forget that history doesn’t start when the new government takes power.
Yeah, yeah…west bad, communism good, got it. move on.
Did anyone say that?
The relationship between the CPC and the KMT was, if not warm, at least warming rapidly. Denying that is to deny recent history.
I recall people laughing at the US warning Ukraine that a Russian invasion was imminent.
In hindsight, it was imminent since they annexed Krimea almost 10 years ago.
Considering Russia’s red lines were made very clear (and were crossed), I’m not sure why anyone is surprised.
China’s red lines were also very clear, but then Pelosi decided to stomp right over them anyway.
It’s rather concerning how today we’re more concerned about protecting ideology than we are about maintaining world peace.
The only way to not have crossed Russia’s supposed red lines would have been for Ukraine to never exist in the first place.
No matter what was done Putin would have found some way to justify his invasion.
Russia’s red lines were primarily “no foreign intervention into Ukraine.” Considering that the US 4th Psychological Operations Group literally posted a video claiming that they organized and supported and “pulled the strings of” Euromaidan…
Tankie you for sharing your opinion. Always love to hear the latest take on geopolitics from a brand new account.
It’s tankie to… Want to avoid war? Damn.
China doesn’t get to dictate what Taiwan does.
Russia doesn’t get to dictate what Ukraine does.
Very simple. The only ideology being pushed here is the delusion that one country should be able to dictate the actions of another to placate the ego of an authoritarian leader. Implying Russia or China were forced into doing anything is some DARVO bullshit.
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He could’ve said “Why would I wait until 2027? I could invade it tomorrow if I had wanted”
He would never say it. He would have said “we don’t comment on internal affairs”.
It’s gonna be Jan 1, 2028, isn’t it?
Among all the other very good reasons this would be a completely fucking stupid and morally bankrupt thing to do (doesn’t mean it won’t happen), this would have a devastating impact globally. You thought the chip shortage was bad during COVID? That was caused by just a change in demand from people’s shift in spending habits. Can you imagine the impact of China trying to invade the country that produces 60% of the entire world supply of chips? When it comes to advanced chips they produce 90% (source).
Just…fuck right off please. Nobody wants you here anyway.
They produce 90% of the world’s advanced chips more out of systematic neglect than out of any technological gap.
Intel floundered years of technological supremacy because they were run by an incompetent manager type. They refused to run a foundry model for decades.
Samsung has completely lost competitiveness and the South Korean government is happy to let them do whatever because South Korea is more like the Samsung government of Korea.
SMIC can’t get access to EUV machines, but even then they’re already knocking on the doors of Intel’s current process.
Can I read more about this somewhere? My understanding was that it would be extremely difficult to the point of impracticality to compete with TSMC or would at least take decades to match them in terms of process and scale. I don’t really know much about chip manufacturing though.
China isn’t held back by personnel. Intuitively, this makes sense even if you subscribe to the Western idea that Chinese people can only copy things: Taiwanese people can easily work in China because of trade/border agreements, China isn’t a poor country, and TSMC employs a massive number of highly experienced engineers. The Taiwan/China culture war is really a Western construct and many TSMC engineers are happy to take jobs in China. SMIC has already shown 7nm DUV capability (comparable to state-of-the-art by Intel).
The only thing holding back Chinese semiconductor capability in terms of hardware is the lack of EUV machines, which are only made by ASML. There are rumours spinning around in Chinese circles that Huawei has an EUV prototype in the debugging stage with a tentative release target of 2025.
If anything, China is far more constrained in terms of software (in a market dominated by Cadence and Synopsys), but this is much more easily circumventable with enough resources. The only reason Cadence and Synopsys haven’t had much competition is because it’s really expensive to develop and doesn’t have that much competitive edge, but that equation changes for China given how happy the US is to slap export restrictions everywhere.
Yeah I guess China firing missiles around Taiwan was just a western construct too I guess. Come on, I’m interested to learn more about chip manufacturing and the practicality or otherwise of someone competing with TSMC and thought you might have interesting sources I hadn’t read.
You could also argue that the U.S isn’t constrained by population and they also have access to the technology and even buy in from TSMC but they haven’t managed to kick start chip manufacturing there yet either unless there are developments there that I missed.
For now, doesn’t seem like the situation is going to be changing anytime soon.
But have you considered, that the existence of an independent Taiwan is an insult to Xi’s ego? And that’s what really matters here.
/s obviously
So WWIII is due for 2027 now? I’ll put it in my agenda.
Why would they have to believe China
Because even ‘the last warning’ is still a warning. Taiwan can better be prepared than think it’s a lie.
Dude keeps a beautiful garden. That’s about the nicest thing I can say about him.
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Anyone seriously contemplating whether China would invade Taiwan needs to look at a map of Taiwan. There is no feasible invasion of Taiwan without millions of casualties: it would be a fight infinitely worse than Vietnam. Taiwan is the perfect fortress, with urban combat surrounded by densely-forested mountains and decades of buildup explicitly designed by the KMT to block a Chinese invasion. It’s also an island separated by more than a hundred kilometers of open ocean. The KMT understands this, as does the CPC.
The only practical military option available to the CPC is a naval blockade like the US did to Cuba, but the KMT was actively trying to stimulate trade with China in the 2008-2016 period to make a blockade economically infeasible. Today, China imports more goods from Taiwan than from any other country in the world.
All this talk of war is fearmongering and posturing to justify increased defense spending at the cost of a lasting and sustainable peace.
Imagine if Taiwan invades China instead
