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Cake day: July 7th, 2023

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  • That’s the problem. They never had a clear goal. Or at least, not an achievable one.

    Broadly, in his more lucid moments, Trump wants Iran to agree to an absolutely devastating list of demands. They won’t, because they’ve been down this road before and they fully expect that whatever they agree to now, they’ll be asked to agree to twice as much tomorrow. So Iran is trying to get to a manageable list of concessions before they settle in and prepare for the next round of negotiations. They’re not going to simply give up all their leverage.

    As for the goal of military action… It’s pretty obvious by now that Trump has no idea. It seems very much like he thinks that threatening military action, of any kind, would be enough to make Iran capitulate to all his demands, and he can’t understand why that isn’t working.

    So he’s unwilling to come down to something Iran will agree to, but he’s also not eager to get stuck into a prolonged war, so instead he’s stuck constantly tightening this “military escalation” ratchet in the desperate hope that this time will be the one where Iran gets scared enough to give up. What they’re actually going to do with those troops could be any number of things, but really it’s all just flailing attempts at further intimidation mixed with vague wishful fantasies about opening up the strait, because despite it being the most obvious move for Iran they somehow did not plan for it.

    They’re also contemplating some escape route options, primarily in the form of “seizing Iran’s uranium”, a plan that doesn’t sound remotely plausible, but which would theoretically give them a way to declare victory and walk away.

    What they ultimately go with is impossible to guess, because there is no long term plan and never has been. It’s all going to be determined by the ever changing mood of an idiot child and the raging hate-boner of a racist alcoholic. Some kind of action to reduce Iran’s control over the strait seems most likely though, as that’s what’s pressuring the US the most right now. If they could - hypothetically - prevent Iran threatening the strait they would have a lot more breathing room. The problem being that it’s also by far the least achievable of the options in front of them.












  • Marines have not been deployed to Kharg yet, unless I missed something.

    What you’re seeing here is just classic Trump, utterly indecisive, utterly lacking in any ability to make long term plans. This is why he doesn’t like war; it demands long term planning and punishes impulsivity (at least at the strategic level).

    Currently he’s stuck between two bad options. He can abandon the fight, or he can go all in. Both choices hurt him, just in different ways. And because he’s a creature of pure id who craves constant adulation and approval, he’s doing what he usually does and sounding those choices out in public to see what plays / feels best.


  • Jesus fucking Christ.

    OK little Timmy, today we’re going to learn that sometimes people express things in their “inner voice”, but they don’t share those things in their “outer voice”.

    And sometimes, later, they might share those “inner voice” thoughts with other people in an environment where it’s safe to do. But it doesn’t mean they have to express those inner voice thoughts to the person that they were thinking them about?

    Does that help you understand better? Would youv maybe like a juice box and a lie down to think about it?



  • Even better than that is Siteground’s absolutely abysmal support system.

    In order to access support they force you to type your question into their chatbot first. This is not optional. It’s the only way to get support.

    Fools that we are, we actually tried the solution the chatbot offered. This resulted in a good amount of time wasted looking for settings that didn’t exist, because the solution was total bullshit. They claim they’ve customized this thing to give helpful outputs, but it’s clearly just ChatGPT with a custom prompt.

    When we finally spoke to an agent I pointed this out and they responded with the stock “You should always double check the output of AI” line.

    DOUBLE CHECK WITH WHOM, YOU MOUTH BREATHING MORON? THIS IS YOUR OFFICIAL FUCKING SUPPORT CHANNEL. YOU LITERALLY DIDN’T GIVE ME ACCESS TO ANY OTHER KIND OF SUPPORT UNTIL I USED THE CHATBOT FIRST, SO WHERE IN THE ACTUAL FUCK AM I SUPPOSED TO DOUBLE CHECK THE OUTPUT?

    Is it with a customer service agent? Is that what you’re saying?! That I should ignore whatever it tells me, wait until I can talk to a representative and then do whatever they say instead? Because if that’s the case, WHY IN THE FUCK ARE YOU FORCING EVERYONE TO TALK TO THE BOT FIRST??!!!

    Absolutely fucking asinine idiocy. Anyway, don’t use Siteground, they fucking suck.




  • If you consult the full text of the treaty, what you’ll notice is that “European state” is not defined anywhere in the treaty. In fact, that quote you posted is literally the only instance of the term in the 55 consolidated articles. Even the “Copenhagen Criteria” which lay out the explicit requirements for membership just gesture back at article 49 again. It’s basically the only use of that term anywhere in the written law on the subject, at least that I can find.

    Outside of the text of the treaty, there aren’t really any commonly accepted legal definitions of a “European state.” Most legal definitions that do exist define it a member of the EU, which is obviously completely circular if you try to use that as a definition of entry criteria; “You’re allowed in if you’re already in.” Geographic definitions don’t work because they’ve always been fuzzy. Is Turkey part of Europe or part of “The Middle East”? Is the “The Middle East” part of Europe, Africa, Asia…? Russia is either a European country or an Asian country depending on what day of the week it is. Parts of the EU extend onto the African continent. Cyprus is an EU member and they’re off the coast of Syria. And given that Canada shares both land and sea borders with EU states (which is actually more than some other EU members can claim), they’ve got all the leeway in the world to decide we qualify if they want to. It basically just comes down to “You’re European if we say you are.”