Russia said on Wednesday the United Nations had three months to implement the terms of a memorandum that would facilitate Russian agricultural exports if it wanted Moscow to resume talks about allowing Ukrainian grain exports to restart.
The amount of grain still going to Africa is very significant, not to mention whatever processing then export of secondary products eventually goes to developing countries. And grain is a global commodity. Without the grain deal, Ukraine doesn’t have any other viable option to export at volume that can compete with sea exports, given that the European rail gauges are different and the physical logistics of transporting it are cost prohibitive and limited by capacity. That raises the price of Ukrainian grain which raises the price of grain globally since it all competes in the same global market. And those who would be most affected are countries who are both food importers and poor, where Africa and the Middle East are top of the list.
Rising grain prices sparked the Arab spring, were part contributor to the political and economic collapse of Sri Lanka, and in general higher food prices have a very disproportionate effect on the poor everywhere.
Costa Rica (stick with me here) is world-renowned for it’s coffee, which makes up 15% of the GDP of the entire country. And years ago, when I visited a coffee plantation in Costa Rica, they told me how they make decaffeinated coffee - and that, while decaffeinated coffee was a product in demand in Costa Rica, there wasn’t a single de-cacfeinating plant in the entire country. It was cheaper for them to ship the coffee to Germany to be decaffeinated, then shipped back to Costa Rica for more processing before being sold. Why is this relevant?
not to mention whatever processing then export of secondary products eventually goes to developing countries.
Because it’s entirely possible that they’re processing the base grain into more refined products before it heads to it’s final destination.
Because it’s entirely possible that they’re processing the base grain into more refined products before it heads to it’s final destination.
And, as with any speculation, just because something is possible does not guarantee it is happening. As with any speculation, it helps to try to back up your claims.
The amount of grain still going to Africa is very significant, not to mention whatever processing then export of secondary products eventually goes to developing countries. And grain is a global commodity. Without the grain deal, Ukraine doesn’t have any other viable option to export at volume that can compete with sea exports, given that the European rail gauges are different and the physical logistics of transporting it are cost prohibitive and limited by capacity. That raises the price of Ukrainian grain which raises the price of grain globally since it all competes in the same global market. And those who would be most affected are countries who are both food importers and poor, where Africa and the Middle East are top of the list.
Rising grain prices sparked the Arab spring, were part contributor to the political and economic collapse of Sri Lanka, and in general higher food prices have a very disproportionate effect on the poor everywhere.
Costa Rica (stick with me here) is world-renowned for it’s coffee, which makes up 15% of the GDP of the entire country. And years ago, when I visited a coffee plantation in Costa Rica, they told me how they make decaffeinated coffee - and that, while decaffeinated coffee was a product in demand in Costa Rica, there wasn’t a single de-cacfeinating plant in the entire country. It was cheaper for them to ship the coffee to Germany to be decaffeinated, then shipped back to Costa Rica for more processing before being sold. Why is this relevant?
Because it’s entirely possible that they’re processing the base grain into more refined products before it heads to it’s final destination.
And, as with any speculation, just because something is possible does not guarantee it is happening. As with any speculation, it helps to try to back up your claims.