I’ve tried to search for opinions on what’s going on in Ukraine, but most posts are incredibly old. I’m not too educated on the matter myself (well, aside from keeping up most of the time with what cities are under whose control and all of that). I haven’t really heard much about the geopolitical side of things, and it’s hard to know what’s disinfo or not; That’s why I’d like to ask: What is your stance on the Ukraine war?
You should read less NYT.
“Damned if you do damned if you don’t” is not a “trap.” Being lied to over and over is not a “trap.” Putin was backed into a corner. He didn’t want to fight but in the end it was either fight or let nazis and NATO live on Russia border and genocide Russian speaking civilians until they were ready to invade Russia itself.
If Putin is “an idiot” how did he manage to insulate Russia’s entire economy from sanctions? He spent the whole time he was trying to avoid the fight also making contingencies for when the fight happened.
The war is hollowing out the EU. They have lost access to cheap Russian energy and so their manufacturing capability is being gutted. All they have left is their Financial capital and without industry to back it up it will disappear before they can rectify their energy situation. European companies are already moving to China.
While the MIC is gaining short term profits from the war overall it will be a major loss. Furthermore the war has shown the global south the need for an alternative to $US. BRICS+ will be direct competition for american dollar hegemony destroying its value. Any $ gains the MIC makes it will have to pay back ten fold to the global south who they traditionary exploited for raw materials. The global south will have alternative buyers that will give them fairer prices in $ which will cause $ to lose more value. On top of all that it has shown how flawed NATO weapon systems really are, how they fare against much cheaper weapons from Russia, and how slowly they are produced. Any nation looking at purchasing weapons supplies is going to consider Russia because they are better value for money by factors of 2 digits and they wont have decades long wait lists.
The material reality of things on the ground in the war and in economies of the nations involved is completely contrary to your post.
I agree with a lot of your points, it was a ‘fucked if you do fucked if you don’t’ situation for Putin and actually I’m not even sure about the Great Man theory of history so even if someone else was leading Russia they would probably still have responded the same way. I don’t know, it still feels like a trap though. And of course the dialectical analysis shows that by cutting Russia off the swift system the BRICS economic integration just intensifies and accelerates de-dollarisation.
But I stand by my comment about Putin being stupid. Calling it a police action without stating exact goals means he’s already lost the information war. There also is no way to win this war unless he goes shock and awe and literally destroys the entire country. Which is not the goal. So the Russian military cant destroy everything to force a solution, and the US is loving it, just pouring infinite money, tanks, jets, climbing the escalation ladder. They intend to outspend Russia and force a domestic coup. Which also won’t happen.
So it’s a lose lose for everyone except the military industrial complex, Goldman Sachs and US LNG exporters
But he didn’t do that. Putin said exactly what the SMO was supposed to do. Putin has some serious flaws but being stupid isn’t one of them. Stop reading the NYT. “because x is stupid/incompetent/insane/evil” is the weakest analysis you can do. It is almost never true and just shows that you don’t understand the situation. It’s marvel movie level thinking.
The stated aims of the SMO are Defence of the Donbas separatist states, Demilitarization, Denazification, and forcing Ukraine to stay neutral. Since Ukraine and the west proved they are pathological liars Russia’s game plan changed a little and now they have incorporated the break away states into Russia proper but the other goals have stayed the same.
Ukraine’s army will eventually collapse. They can’t stand up against Russia forever. They cant recruit soldiers fast enough, The west cant manufacture weapons fast enough and even if they could they wouldn’t want to give them away to a failed state. When that happens all that remains is tearing down some nazi monuments and installing a puppet government.
Again the MIC and LNG exporters win is a short lived boost that will ultimately accelerate their own downfall. Their wins are at the cost of their allies. USA are cannibalizing Europe to prop themselves up. This is only a win if you don’t look past the immediate future.
Putin returned the Azov battalion leaders and fighters to Ukraine in a prisoner swap. If Azov are Nazis, as is commonly stated, Putin is doing a very, very poor job at denazification in Ukraine.
What was he supposed to do? Let Russian POWs be shot and tortured while azov nazis get treated like humans?
The plan isn’t to hunt down and kill every nazi. Its to make a society where nazism is strongly discouraged. When Ukraine surrenders there will be prison sentences for nazis in Ukraine like there are in Russia.