According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
Just to point out that you can actually understand what Russian geopolitical strategic goals are from the way their military is deployed and operates on the battlefield:
Want to force Ukraine into a quick peace: Rapid mechanized groups make a bee-line for Kiev, some key areas are surrounded. Accept equipment losses from poor logistics but get to besiege the enemy capital while preventing escape of government from it. Then retreat from areas you can’t hold long-term anyway, as a show of good faith. Western media interpreted this as “Ukrainian army fighting bravely and beating back the Russians who are doing stupid maneuvers and losing (abandoning due to lack of fuel/repair parts) tanks by the hundreds”
Want to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk: Forces regroup and form a solid offensive line. Surround major population centers and cut off logistics for Ukrainian forces. Then when enemy ammo, food and water is low, open relief corridors for civilians and let Ukrainian soldiers use them to escape. Then move in the town/city and take it with reduced resistance, causing minimal damage to population and infrastructure. At this point, Ukraine starts pumping out “war zone reports” that are staged to paint Russian soldiers as barbaric and also hide the fact that the Ukrainian army can not hold onto towns. On the other hand, people of Donetsk and Luhansk welcome them as heroes and the rebuilding begins. Guess which story the Western media chose to propagate.
Want to incorporate Kherson, Zhaporyzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia: Russian forces understand that they are in danger of overextending their lines. They pause advances and start preparing defenses on the front and behind it. They shift troop concentrations to the areas under control that they plan on annexing into Russia. Meanwhile, they make small-scale attacks across the frontline to probe for weaknesses and keep Ukrainian forces on the defensive. They organize the civilian administration of the 4 areas they control and start rebuilding everything. The population supports them and approves the referenda to join the Russian Federation. Ukraine fails to disrupt this process as they are kept on the defensive. Western media chose to portray this as “fake referenda done at gun-point” and that Ukrainian forces are regrouping for major offensives. Which happen in winter and push Russian forces back from Kharkov and Izium. The Russians didn’t like this, but they had predicted it might happen, during their troop movements, as they prioritized keeping the 4 new Russian regions safe, by paying with reduced security in an area meant to be a buffer zone.
Want to drain Ukrainian manpower and equipment (denazify Ukraine): After liberating Luhansk and most of Donetsk, Ukrainian resistance became much stiffer, while serious NATO aid is arriving, which allowed the Ukrainian victory at Kharkov and Izium. Russia no longer cares about occupying more land. They make offensive and defensive plans that are designed to cause losses to Ukrainian forces instead. They draw Ukrainian forces into badly-defended positions they can’t retreat from, then pummel them. That’s how Bakhmut, Mariupol, Avdeevka, and the Verbove-Robotyne defense to the vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive became such disasters for Ukraine. Surround positions, pummel areas surrounding the positions with artillery to cut off supplies, make Ukrainian government commit politically to fighting in these places, then move in and focus on killing/wounding/capturing Ukrainian soldiers instead of taking territory quickly. Out in the open let the front-lines remain static, map them out using drones, satellites and recon, then pummel anything that moves with artillery and air forces. Increase artillery shell and drone production to levels where you can overwhelm Ukrainian artillery and armored forces every time they try to be active anywhere near the front line. The result is that now, the Ukrainian army is torn to pieces, with some estimates showing between 1 and 2 million Ukrainian losses (dead, wounded, captured). This has also caused Western support to wane. Even Western media are coming to realize what is going to happen.
Putin declares that all the lands up to Kiev were historically part of Russia (the future): Now that Ukrainian forces are mostly irrelevant, Russians have the strategic initiative. They’ve already began probing attacks all along the front line which are succeeding in pushing the Ukrainians back. A major offensive is probably coming in the summer, which will possibly see Russia capturing Odessa, Dnipro and Slaviansk/Kramatorsk. Russia will then likely launch offensives into Sumy, Poltava, Kharkov and Cherkasy.
Just to point out that you can actually understand what Russian geopolitical strategic goals are from the way their military is deployed and operates on the battlefield:
Want to force Ukraine into a quick peace: Rapid mechanized groups make a bee-line for Kiev, some key areas are surrounded. Accept equipment losses from poor logistics but get to besiege the enemy capital while preventing escape of government from it. Then retreat from areas you can’t hold long-term anyway, as a show of good faith. Western media interpreted this as “Ukrainian army fighting bravely and beating back the Russians who are doing stupid maneuvers and losing (abandoning due to lack of fuel/repair parts) tanks by the hundreds”
Want to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk: Forces regroup and form a solid offensive line. Surround major population centers and cut off logistics for Ukrainian forces. Then when enemy ammo, food and water is low, open relief corridors for civilians and let Ukrainian soldiers use them to escape. Then move in the town/city and take it with reduced resistance, causing minimal damage to population and infrastructure. At this point, Ukraine starts pumping out “war zone reports” that are staged to paint Russian soldiers as barbaric and also hide the fact that the Ukrainian army can not hold onto towns. On the other hand, people of Donetsk and Luhansk welcome them as heroes and the rebuilding begins. Guess which story the Western media chose to propagate.
Want to incorporate Kherson, Zhaporyzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia: Russian forces understand that they are in danger of overextending their lines. They pause advances and start preparing defenses on the front and behind it. They shift troop concentrations to the areas under control that they plan on annexing into Russia. Meanwhile, they make small-scale attacks across the frontline to probe for weaknesses and keep Ukrainian forces on the defensive. They organize the civilian administration of the 4 areas they control and start rebuilding everything. The population supports them and approves the referenda to join the Russian Federation. Ukraine fails to disrupt this process as they are kept on the defensive. Western media chose to portray this as “fake referenda done at gun-point” and that Ukrainian forces are regrouping for major offensives. Which happen in winter and push Russian forces back from Kharkov and Izium. The Russians didn’t like this, but they had predicted it might happen, during their troop movements, as they prioritized keeping the 4 new Russian regions safe, by paying with reduced security in an area meant to be a buffer zone.
Want to drain Ukrainian manpower and equipment (denazify Ukraine): After liberating Luhansk and most of Donetsk, Ukrainian resistance became much stiffer, while serious NATO aid is arriving, which allowed the Ukrainian victory at Kharkov and Izium. Russia no longer cares about occupying more land. They make offensive and defensive plans that are designed to cause losses to Ukrainian forces instead. They draw Ukrainian forces into badly-defended positions they can’t retreat from, then pummel them. That’s how Bakhmut, Mariupol, Avdeevka, and the Verbove-Robotyne defense to the vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive became such disasters for Ukraine. Surround positions, pummel areas surrounding the positions with artillery to cut off supplies, make Ukrainian government commit politically to fighting in these places, then move in and focus on killing/wounding/capturing Ukrainian soldiers instead of taking territory quickly. Out in the open let the front-lines remain static, map them out using drones, satellites and recon, then pummel anything that moves with artillery and air forces. Increase artillery shell and drone production to levels where you can overwhelm Ukrainian artillery and armored forces every time they try to be active anywhere near the front line. The result is that now, the Ukrainian army is torn to pieces, with some estimates showing between 1 and 2 million Ukrainian losses (dead, wounded, captured). This has also caused Western support to wane. Even Western media are coming to realize what is going to happen.
Putin declares that all the lands up to Kiev were historically part of Russia (the future): Now that Ukrainian forces are mostly irrelevant, Russians have the strategic initiative. They’ve already began probing attacks all along the front line which are succeeding in pushing the Ukrainians back. A major offensive is probably coming in the summer, which will possibly see Russia capturing Odessa, Dnipro and Slaviansk/Kramatorsk. Russia will then likely launch offensives into Sumy, Poltava, Kharkov and Cherkasy.