There is a significant non-zero probability that any given week of theirs, is there last week.
I mean how many years do we think either of these two has left?
2? 3? and it doesn’t have to be 🛴🪣 , just total mental or physical degradation.
So what they’ve got maybe 100, 200 weeks ahead of them max? Assuming a uniform probability distribution, that’s a charitable 0.25% per week (and I do not believe its a uniform distribution), 40 weeks till the election, call it a %0.25 for either of them individually to kick the bucket: I get 18.14% probability that either one of the two 🛴🪣 in the next 40 weeks. Like its not crazy, they are old af.
I’m sure a student of geriatrics could get us some more informed priors, but I bet thats in the ball park.
I mean, these fuckers are old.
Like way fucking old.
There is a significant non-zero probability that any given week of theirs, is there last week.
I mean how many years do we think either of these two has left?
2? 3? and it doesn’t have to be 🛴🪣 , just total mental or physical degradation.
So what they’ve got maybe 100, 200 weeks ahead of them max? Assuming a uniform probability distribution, that’s a charitable 0.25% per week (and I do not believe its a uniform distribution), 40 weeks till the election, call it a %0.25 for either of them individually to kick the bucket: I get 18.14% probability that either one of the two 🛴🪣 in the next 40 weeks. Like its not crazy, they are old af.
I’m sure a student of geriatrics could get us some more informed priors, but I bet thats in the ball park.