Only bet I ever won was the only one I ever really took, because I knew I couldn’t lose. I was discussing Colombia with someone (we’d both been there) and they forgot Colombia has both an Atlantic and a Pacific coastline. We bet on it, and since I know world geography on the continental scale nearly by heart, I won the bet.
I wouldn’t have even taken that bet if I had a 75% chance of winning, because I bet $100 but was broke. Never bet on even the slightest uncertainty if you can’t afford to pay, it’s not worth it. Fortunately, I’d been to both over both coasts of Colombia on planes, seen Colombia on all sorts of maps and globes, and reality is consistent enough that coastlines on a map don’t change until the real world changes first plus a delay to update the maps, and internet failure would just mean the bet was off. I had basically no chance of failure and the guy would have been pretty patient in the 0.0000000~0001% chance a freak accident occurred.
Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but if your chance of winning is lower than your chance of dying or having your life permanently ruined if you lose, you’re better off walking away. And that’s why I never liked the Golden Saucer type games in Pokémon and Neopets, one spin really is just one spin for me, win or lose, because if I don’t win the first time on a luck based “game” then I see it for what it is… an obvious con.
Casinos are proof that the gamblers fallacy is true and that most players are optimists at best and delusional at worst.
Or as it was said in something I read years ago:
When you sit down at a poker table there are always more optimists playing than statisticians. Just be sure you know which one you are.
Only bet I ever won was the only one I ever really took, because I knew I couldn’t lose. I was discussing Colombia with someone (we’d both been there) and they forgot Colombia has both an Atlantic and a Pacific coastline. We bet on it, and since I know world geography on the continental scale nearly by heart, I won the bet.
I wouldn’t have even taken that bet if I had a 75% chance of winning, because I bet $100 but was broke. Never bet on even the slightest uncertainty if you can’t afford to pay, it’s not worth it. Fortunately, I’d been to both over both coasts of Colombia on planes, seen Colombia on all sorts of maps and globes, and reality is consistent enough that coastlines on a map don’t change until the real world changes first plus a delay to update the maps, and internet failure would just mean the bet was off. I had basically no chance of failure and the guy would have been pretty patient in the 0.0000000~0001% chance a freak accident occurred.
Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but if your chance of winning is lower than your chance of dying or having your life permanently ruined if you lose, you’re better off walking away. And that’s why I never liked the Golden Saucer type games in Pokémon and Neopets, one spin really is just one spin for me, win or lose, because if I don’t win the first time on a luck based “game” then I see it for what it is… an obvious con.